The Let's Play Archive

Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru

by ProfessorProf

Part 206: Jessica & George's Question (Wrong Answer)

"What?! Wh, why?!"

We started with three boxes. When they set the red box in front of me, the odds of there being a medal inside were, obviously, one in three. At the same time, the odds for the blue box were one in three, as were the odds for the green box. Jessica onee-chan opened the green box, so there were then only two boxes left, and the odds became 50-50. So, why was I wrong...???

"...It was you George, wasn't it? You thought this puzzle up. Did the Monty Hall problem even exist in 1986?"
"Nope, not until 1990. It's a puzzle that already exists in Ange-chan's world, so I thought it'd be okay to use it."
"George nii-san ran me through the answer, but I was totally lost. Anyway, I don't get the details, but in this case, the odds of the blue box having the medal are about twice the odds of the red box having it."

Twice the odds? ...Even if there was a difference, I thought it'd be a tiny one. Probability is hard. Didn't Onii-chan once say that people who don't get probability should never go gambling? I guess I'll never gamble for the rest of my life...

Aunt Eva nodded and patted my head encouragingly...