Part 16: Versus: Dog

_{content warning: suicidal ideation, suicide}

[BGM: A Bite That Persists]


Liar's dice?

Never heard of it? Oh, this one's a classic. Essentially, we both have some dice. We'll roll our die, then hide them so only we can see them. Then we take turns making offers. Any subsequent offer has to be bigger.

So 'One 1' would be the smallest offer, then 'One 2', 'One 3', all the way up until 'One 6', then 'Two 1s', and so on. The offers are guesses as to how many of a certain type of roll there is cumulatively between both our groups of dice.

The person who lost the last round has to make the first offer. Eventually, the offer will get so high that one of us can 'call' it. When an offer is called, all the dice will be revealed.

If the person who made the offer was right, if there really was at least four 5s or whatever, then the person who 'called' loses. On the other hand, if there are less than four 5s, the person who made the offer loses.

The loser gives up one of their dice, and the game continues, with whoever lost the die the first to say an offer. When you run out of dice, that's the game. Understand?

… ...Yeah. Yeah, okay. I think I understand.

Great! Then let's get started.



As Dog walked over to grab some dice out of the vending machine, I steeled myself. This was it. This was, realistically, our last chance to stop him. Everyone was counting on me.

You've got this, Mouse!

Kick his ass!

Be careful, Mouse. He's a difficult opponent. This won't be easy.

Obviously this wouldn't be easy. As usual, Ox was no help. But I was thankful for the motivation the others gave me. It filled me with a sense of strength. Who cared if Dog had won all the other games? Everyone's luck runs out eventually. This was the end of the line for Dog.



I faced him down over the table, and he took four dice out of his pocket.

So we each get four?

Oh no, we each get two.

Two?

Yup. Keeps things nice and succinct.

I was already getting a bad feeling, but I kept that to myself.

Since you're the challenger, you can make the first offer. So now, let's roll!

At Dog's command, we rolled our dice with one hand, and shielded them from view with our other.



I rolled... a 1 and a 3. Didn't seem ideal. But I had to make the first offer. It was possible for me to bluff right out of the gate, saying a number I didn't have, like a 6. Alternatively, I could just say one of the numbers I had.

I claimed to have...



Believe it or not, you actually have to play the game here- and the creator's accounted for multiple outcomes based on your offer choices. ...Though, it's obviously pretty cut and dry what the actual “choice” is- whether Mouse wins or loses.

We're going to win in this update- what happens when we lose will be shown later.

One 1.

I'd start out small. Dog gave me a smirk, and instantly answered in kind.

One 3.

One 3? So, he also had a 3? Huh... what to do with this?



The correct play is not Two 3s, like you would imagine, but instead to think one step further and say Three 3s. We know from the past few updates that Dog absolutely will cheat no matter what to get ahead, and from the rules it can be inferred that the biggest advantage/roll you can get is doubles, as it essentially gives you an extra angle to bluff around. If we chose Two 1s, he would call our bluff on the spot (since he knows we didn't cheat, and the odds of us rolling snake eyes is pretty low), and if we chose Two 3s and he has a pair of 3s then he gets the upper hand and wins. Therefore:

Three 3s.

Three... 3s? Ah, damn.

Uh, I've got a bad feeling about this, but I guess I'll try Four 3s.

Four 3s? That was a definite win!

Call!



I showed my hand, my 1 and my 3, with glee. Dog, in turn, showed his two 3s with reluctance.

Oh well. Win some, lose some.

With that, I had won the first encounter. I was ahead. As the loser, Dog tossed away one of his dice. More than anything, he looked determined. He wasn't backing down. Neither was I.

Time to roll again!

And like that, we made our fateful rolls. I was super-duper focused on my dice, willing them to be good.



It was... a 2 and a 4. Didn't seem bad, not bad at all. Dog looked at his hand for a bit. Then, he spoke.

One 2.

One 2, huh? What was the response to that? What to say?



It might not be immediately obvious, but the correct play here is to say One 6- if we say Two 2s, we run into the same issue with Two 1s- if he doesn't have a 2, then he'll know that statistically it's unlikely we rolled two 2s ourselves (and we didn't cheat, since again, Mouse wouldn't know how to manipulate her dice without him seeing), and we lose that way. One 4, on the other hand, is playing it TOO safe- if he rolled higher than a 4, we're sunk and lose that way.

Therefore, One 6 is the right choice- it's still a bluff, but it's one that is statistically much more likely (there's no reason to doubt it offhand, to call the bluff would functionally be up to chance), and it ALSO puts Dog in a terrible position with only one die- his bluff has great odds to fail as we have two dice to his one, and Mouse can call the moment he makes an offer that doesn't match either Mouse's rolls.

...That said, in the interest of showing everything, we're actually going to lose round two on purpose, because doing so results in a final round where we both have one die left each- and it's still possible to win that round.

One 4.

No need to get fancy. I'd just say something higher than him.

One 5.

Wh-what? Was he lying earlier? Or was he bluffing now? I needed to think quick.



This is a fake answer- both choices result in a loss.

Maybe a quick bluff could make him play suboptimally.

One 6.

…

Call.

Shit. I opened my hand revealing my 2 and my 4. He showed his hand, which didn't have a 6.

Would you look at that? We're even again.

But not for long.

Yep.

Looks like this is the final roll!

Yep.



Dog had regained some swagger. But his eyes were cold. Of course he was serious, this would all be decided with one roll.

We made our final rolls. And I rolled... A 4. Not bad, not bad. Who knew what Dog had rolled, though. So then... I had to make an offer first. So what to say?



This last one's probably the hardest to figure out naturally, because it requires us to do some deduction completely separate from the roll itself; specifically, we have to answer the question 'what number is Dog most likely to cheat into?' It wasn't stated last round (and wouldn't be unless we called there), but the number he “rolled” in round two was a 5. 5 is the best number you can get when you have only one die left in this situation, and we can see why by examining the trap Dog set up last round:

Start with a low, fake offer (One 2, in his case) to attempt to bait the opponent into making an offer of their own rather than calling it (because the odds are they have a die that's higher, so it's the safer/”right” choice to make rather than calling), followed up by a truthful offer that's a landmine in disguise. If they make a second offer (One 6, Two 1s, etc) you can call them immediately and, statistically, you're very likely to win that call. Alternatively, if they call rather than make an offer, you win because your offer was “correct”- you do, in fact, have One 5, and the rules only state you have to have “at least” the offer you made- so even if your opponent also has a 5, they lose, because your offer was only that there was at least a 5- and therefore, you still made a “correct” offer.

Therefore, One 4 is again the incorrect choice, because while it's the true offer, it gives him an opening to set the trap again. One 6 is also a wrong choice, because it removes all other options from the vote and makes the call purely a 1 in 6 chance of being incorrect- and those are some great odds for him. One 5, on the other hand, fucks Dog over considerably if he cheated to get the ideal 5 here, because if he calls then Mouse wins, and if he offers higher then Mouse can easily call, either because he moves to the Two Xs offers or because, like I said, One 6 is a 1 in 6 chance of blowing up- giving US the great odds.

What if he had a 5? It was unlikely, but then again, Dog had been rolling really good. Maybe he was cheating... And if that was the case...

One 5.

One 5, huh? Man, would you imagine my luck.

I thought I was dead! But someone's smiling on me.



Two 5s.

Call.

Th-

What?

I revealed my hand, showing a 4. His face scrunched up in frustration, as he moved his hand to show a 5.

So then, you lose your last die!

...So I do.

Yes! Hell yeah! That was a win, clean and simple. No tricks, no cheats.

[BGM: Silence]


I had beaten Dog.

Seeing that he had lost, he didn't get angry, or sad, or happy. His face just became... empty.



So. That's how it goes.

Yeah, it is.

I guess I should congratulate you or something. Well done. You've beaten me. Whoopee.

You don't sound too happy about it.

Of course I'm not.

But you don't sound too upset, either.

Yeah, well... If it was going to end up like this, I just wish one of you had won sooner.

If I ask you why you did this, will I get a straight answer?



Isn't it obvious? I wanted to survive.

No, no I don't think you particularly did.

…

Yeah, I suppose you're right. It would've been so much easier, if a bit less fun, to just give up and willingly get executed.

But I guess I had a bit of resolve after all.

Resolve? Resolve to what, to kill people?

[BGM: Somber Howl]


Resolve to help bury demons.

Bury demons?

*sigh* Why do you care? It's not like any of this matters.

None of this matters? Two people are dead!

That's life.

You really don't care about life?

I do, sometimes, incidentally, but it's not really worth it.

You sound like an emo teen.

A generous comparison, I'd say.



But take it from someone double your age, this isn't 'just a phase'. It's an observation made from actual life experience.

…

As a cop, I ran into so, so, so many cases. So much violence, so much death. And the more cases you see, the more you realize how pointless they all are.

Some kid who grew up in an unwinnable position. Some ridiculous accident that leads to the perfect murder opportunity. Some vengeful, bankrupt business owner screwed by a deal and a random fluctuation of the market.

There's no rhyme or reason to any of it. People die, people kill, people live for reasons all entirely beyond their control. And it was the people who felt the need to be in the most control who got fucked over the hardest.

And the police? The ones trying to control the chaos? Turns out the Chief of 'em was too busy blackmailing his subordinates to do his job properly.

Dog, what are you talking about? The Chief of Police... Bowen... blackmailing his subordinates?



No way to stop him. Part of the reason why I quit, opened the bar. And as a bartender, you hear a lot of stories from bitter drunkards. More tales of arbitrary suffering in a ridiculous world.

Perhaps this is all a bit too nihilistic for you all. A bit too dramatic.

But that's because you all haven't had your number called on Hell's Roulette. Step in the shoes of those who have experienced it enough times, and you'll start seeing what I'm talking about.

Hence, I decided a long time ago clinging too much to anything's a wash. Best to focus on enjoying the present, all else be damned.

Well, I guess I didn't really commit to that decision, seeing as how this all turned out.

You still haven't explained yourself!



I wonder how much Brian knows.

Huh?

I can't possibly think its a coincidence that this is the case that sparked a huge death game. No, that's way too random. I mean, what are the odds that the case that spawns a mass kidnapping just so happens to be the case that Bowen's been secretly investigating for years now?

Bowen's been investigating it?

Then, are you saying-

No, no, don't get me wrong. Morris is clearly guilty, that's been proven seven ways to hell and back. We just don't know everything about it.



I guess most would chalk up Bowen's secret obsession to the fact that it was his older brother that got murdered. I mean, he was in a real state on the 11th that it happened. But that's not it at all, trust me.

Then what is it?

Instead of answering, Dog leaned down and reached into his boot. Out of his left shoe, he took out an intricate golden knife.

What are you doing?

You know, this was a gift from Bowen. Bowen's not a good man, but we're friends nonetheless.

Uh, neat.



The knife is actually part of a pair. It has an identical twin, you could say. The knife is also quite intricately designed. If you press down here, and here...

Dog pressed down on parts of the handle. The base of the knife popped down, revealing a small compartment.

You get a neat little hidey-hole. I keep the knife on me at all times, so by extension, I keep whatever's stored in the hidey-hole on me at all times.

For a while it was a roll of 100 dollar bills. But recently, I changed it to this.

Dog reached in and pulled out a small metal capsule. What was it? He held it in one hand, and with his other, he started to screw it. And then?

*BOOM!*

[BGM: Silence]


All I could see was white.

Was that a fucking flashbang?! Why would he set that off?

I heard movement in front of me, rapid movement. But my ears heard a high, whining noise which I knew in reality wasn't there.

I was so disoriented, I couldn't react.

Someone was close to me.

It was probably Dog, rushing me.

Fuck.

Time felt like it was slowed. I couldn't do anything to react.

*BANG*



It took a couple seconds longer for my eyes to react. When I came back to, I saw Dog lying to the side of where I stood. He was face down, holding his knife in his left hand, with a bullet hole through the back of his head. He was clearly sprinting towards me with the knife.

Dragon, in front of me, held a pistol out with her hands shaking. She must've reacted fast enough to save me. But if Dog had died...

The worried look on Dragon's face told me that this realization had also dawned on her.

Dragon, I-

Before I could hear anything else, I heard several ugly noises. Tiger, Horse, Dragon, and Ox all cried out in pain. Their knees buckled, they scratched at their throat, they shouted through their bleeding vocal chords.



All of their collars had been activated. All of them had been executed. It was a horrifying sight. With one bullet, five were dying. I just stood there, frozen. What could I do to save them?

Nothing.

All I was left with was not grief, nor horror, nor anger. But utter confusion. What was Dog after just then? Why would he try and kill me, knowing it would kill him, and then kill the other four? I couldn't think of a single good reason.

I just stood there.

It didn't take long for all the bodies to hit the floor. Bunny and Snake. Dog. Horse, Tiger, Dragon, Ox.

7 people lay dead around me.

It was a graveyard.



Guys, am I a freaking god-tier investigator or what, because I think I found al-



…

…

…

So I have some questions.

…

[BGM: That Pesky Rodent]


The survivors gathered in the cafeteria when all was said and done. When Dog fired the gun, Sheep, Monkey, and Pig hid in a classroom down the hall. Whether that was smart of them or cowardly is dealer's choice. Either way, it let them survive.

While the rest of us were at each other's throats, Rooster obliviously continued his search of Minor Trinkets. He ended up finding most of the Minor Trinkets, as well as a number of Major Trinkets. Plus, with the constant pausing of the timer, it was still Round 4 after all that time.

Both Traitors, Dog and Bunny, were dead, so there was nothing to worry about. It was entirely smooth sailing to a joint victory. In the end, five people would get to escape unharmed. That wasn't the worst outcome ever, all things considered.



At least I got out alive. But that scene... I could still see those four convulsing in absolute pain and terror. I'd never be able to forget that.

And Dog, too. I'd never be able to forget him. Nor would I be able to understand him. He went on a taming spree, was seemingly unconcerned upon losing, dropped a bunch of hefty accusations, then mid-explanation tried to knife me. What was his goal? If Dragon hadn't shot him, I'd be...

Well. I couldn't think about that. I didn't have to think about any of this. I was free. Screw Dog. Screw Bunny. Screw Dragon. Screw Ox. Screw the Jade Emperor, screw Brian. I wasn't going to think about any of them again after this.

Why should I? I never had a good reason to be here in the first place. I'd just live my life like this never happened. That was feasible, right?

[BGM: Silence]


In the end, the escapees were myself, Sheep, Monkey, Rooster, and Pig.



Ending - Queen of Spades

If the Second Caw is found in the first three rounds, Dog will be assigned a role that forces him to act. If a man of his talents and temperament finds the Taming Whip, he will definitely make good use of it.

Dog's the type to take as many people under control as possible. While far from the smartest, when it comes to pure gambling, experience will give him a pure edge.

But that can only take him so far. Eventually he'll lose, and when he does, he's liable to burn the whole place down. The nature of gambling is uncertain. Well, less certain than most things in this world.

This isn't a particularly attractive route to choose.

Every ending has a capstone bit of text- as this is the proper route ending, we get this, but for the premature/”bad” endings, it usually gives you a hint for what went wrong or what you need to do to avoid that ending instead. The next update will be a “bonus” update covering the route as a whole, and any endings we missed.